Analysis of the Recent Pakistan-India Skirmishes: Military Balance, Damages, Diplomatic Implications, and Nuclear Risk
I had a great interest in learning about the Pakistani-Indian turmoil and continuous conflict since I watched the movie that depicts the life of Mahatma Gandhi. The movie explains why the separation between Pakistan and India has happened. Naturally, the movie didn't go into detail and entailed a lot. However, it gave me an idea about the separation, the conflict, and the ongoing dispute. I wanted to learn more, so I started a journey of research with Gemini and ended up with a well-established report that explains the root cause of the conflict (without going deeply into the historic events), the military capabilities of both countries, the risk of actual nuclear exchange, and recommendations to prevent the catastrophic outcomes that could materialize in case further escalation takes place. I enjoyed reading it, and here I'm sharing it publicly:
Executive Summary
The recent escalation of tensions between Pakistan and India in April-May 2025, triggered by a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, represents a significant military confrontation between the two nuclear-armed rivals. The crisis witnessed a rapid sequence of military and diplomatic escalations, including missile strikes, drone attacks, and a severe downgrading of bilateral relations. While India demonstrated a greater capacity to strike deep into Pakistani territory, Pakistan showcased its ability to retaliate and inflict damage. The skirmishes resulted in civilian and military casualties on both sides, alongside significant infrastructure damage and economic disruption. Diplomatic relations plummeted, marked by the suspension of key agreements and the expulsion of diplomats. A fragile ceasefire, brokered by the United States, brought a temporary halt to the hostilities, but the underlying issues, particularly the Kashmir dispute, remain unresolved, posing a continued risk of future conflict and the ever-present danger of nuclear escalation.
Introduction: Context of India-Pakistan Relations and the 2025 Crisis
The relationship between India and Pakistan has been fraught with tension and conflict since their inception as independent nations in 1947, following the partition of British India. The core of this enduring animosity lies in the unresolved territorial dispute over the Kashmir region, which both countries claim in its entirety but administer in parts separated by the Line of Control (LoC). This contested region has been the primary catalyst for two of the three major wars fought between India and Pakistan prior to their nuclearization in 1998. Since becoming nuclear powers, major crises, including Kargil (1999), the Indian parliament attack (2001), the Mumbai attacks (2008), Pathankot (2016), and Uri (2016), have followed a familiar pattern: India has consistently blamed Pakistan for terrorism and has often responded with diplomatic or limited military measures. A notable departure from this pattern occurred in 2019 after the Pulwama attack, where India conducted an airstrike inside mainland Pakistan, signaling a shift towards unilateral preemptive action under the shadow of nuclear deterrence. The revocation of Article 370 by the Indian government on August 5, 2019, which stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its semi-autonomous status, further inflamed tensions, drawing strong condemnation from Pakistan as a violation of UN Security Council resolutions. This historical context of mutual distrust and recurring crises, centered on the Kashmir issue, provides a crucial backdrop for understanding the dynamics of the 2025 escalation. The consistent pattern of India blaming Pakistan for terrorism after significant attacks suggests a deeply entrenched and cyclical nature of conflict, shaping the actions and reactions of both nations.
The immediate trigger for the 2025 crisis was the deadly attack on April 22 in Pahalgam, a resort town in Indian-administered Kashmir, where unidentified gunmen killed 26-27 people, mostly Hindu tourists, and injured over 20 others. Initially, a little-known militant outfit called The Resistance Front (TRF) claimed responsibility for the attack, but later disavowed it. India swiftly blamed Pakistan for backing the attackers, an accusation that Islamabad vehemently denied, even suggesting the attack might have been a "false flag operation" orchestrated to justify Indian coercive action. In the immediate aftermath, India initiated a series of strong retaliatory measures, including downgrading diplomatic ties with Pakistan, suspending the crucial Indus Waters Treaty, closing the only functional land border crossing at Attari-Wagah, and canceling visas for Pakistani nationals. These immediate and forceful actions, even before any conclusive evidence of Pakistan's direct involvement in the Pahalgam attack was publicly presented, suggest a pre-determined strategy of retaliation following such incidents. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a significant move with potentially severe consequences for Pakistan's water resources, indicates India's willingness to escalate beyond traditional diplomatic measures and exert considerable pressure on its neighbor.
Military Operations and Analysis
Following the Pahalgam attack and the initial diplomatic fallout, the crisis rapidly escalated into military confrontation. India initiated a significant military operation, codenamed "Operation Sindoor," on the night of May 6-7, 2025. This operation involved missile strikes conducted by Indian Air Force (IAF) jets, reportedly including Rafale aircraft armed with SCALP missiles and Hammer bombs. India claimed that these strikes targeted nine locations within Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, asserting that these sites were used by militant groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba to plan terrorist attacks. The Indian government stated that Operation Sindoor was a focused, measured, and non-escalatory response, claiming to have killed over 100 militants in these strikes. Beyond these initial missile strikes, India also reportedly targeted key Pakistani air bases, including Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi (close to Pakistan's army headquarters), as well as Rahim Yaran, Bolari, and Saroda air bases. These actions signaled India's willingness to challenge Pakistan's air defenses and threaten assets close to the heart of the Pakistani state. Reports also suggested the use of BrahMos cruise missiles and Indo-Israeli SkyStriker loitering munitions during the operation. India's decision to conduct deep strikes into Pakistani territory, including targeting a major airbase near Pakistan's army headquarters in Rawalpindi, represents a significant escalation in its military response compared to previous crises. This demonstrates a greater willingness to take risks and challenge Pakistan's strategic assets, moving beyond symbolic retaliation to potentially degrading Pakistan's military capabilities.
Pakistan responded to India's Operation Sindoor with heavy firing along the Line of Control and retaliatory missile and drone attacks into Indian territories, primarily targeting military installations and air bases. Pakistan claimed to have shot down multiple Indian aircraft, including advanced fighter jets like Rafales, MiG-29s, and Su-30MKIs, as well as numerous Indian drones. Islamabad also announced its own retaliatory operation, codenamed "Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos," claiming to have targeted several Indian military bases. In contrast to India's claims of targeting only terrorist infrastructure, Pakistan reported significant civilian casualties (31 dead) from the Indian strikes, including damage to mosques and other civilian areas. Additionally, there were reports of drone attacks on major Pakistani cities like Lahore and Karachi, with Pakistani authorities claiming to have shot down 12 Indian drones. Pakistan's retaliation, including claims of downing advanced Indian fighter jets and conducting drone attacks on major Indian cities, suggests a determination to respond forcefully to India's actions and project an image of resilience. The emphasis on civilian casualties in Pakistan's narrative aims to garner international sympathy and potentially delegitimize India's strikes.
Assessing military superiority in this context is complex. While India generally possesses a larger and more modern military compared to Pakistan, the recent skirmishes demonstrated a more nuanced picture. India showcased its capability to strike deep inside Pakistan with precision missiles and air power, reaching strategic targets like air bases in Punjab. This suggests a greater offensive reach compared to Pakistan's retaliatory strikes, which primarily targeted military installations closer to the border in Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab (India). However, Pakistan's claims of downing multiple Indian aircraft, including advanced Rafale jets, and its ability to launch drone attacks on cities like Lahore and Karachi indicate that it retains the capability to inflict damage and impose costs on India. The targeting of air bases on both sides signifies a willingness to challenge each other's air power, a critical component of modern warfare. Furthermore, the reported extensive use of drones and loitering munitions by both sides suggests a potential shift towards drone warfare in future conflicts between the two nations. While India demonstrated greater reach and the ability to strike deeper into Pakistan, Pakistan's actions suggest that it is not without the means to retaliate and potentially escalate the conflict. This mutual capability for inflicting pain contributes to a situation of strategic stalemate despite India's overall military advantage.
Table 1: Comparison of Key Military Strengths
This table highlights India's numerical superiority in several key conventional military categories in 2025, providing context for the military actions during the skirmishes and underscoring the underlying power dynamics between the two nations.
Assessment of Damages and Casualties
The recent skirmishes between India and Pakistan resulted in a significant human cost, with both sides reporting casualties. The reported death toll varied between the two countries. India stated that it suffered 21 civilian and 5 military deaths during the conflict. In contrast, Pakistan claimed that 51 people died in the clashes, including 40 civilians and 11 military personnel. India had initially claimed to have killed over 100 militants in its Operation Sindoor, but these figures were not independently verified. Civilian casualties were reported on both sides due to missile strikes and cross-border shelling, underscoring the devastating impact of the conflict on local populations.
The significant number of civilian deaths reported by both sides highlights the human cost of these skirmishes and the potential for further escalation driven by public outrage and calls for revenge. The discrepancy in the reported figures also underscores the inherent difficulty in obtaining accurate information during periods of active conflict.
Beyond the loss of life, the military operations also caused significant infrastructure damage on both sides. Military installations and air bases were reportedly targeted by missile and drone attacks. Damage to civilian infrastructure was also reported, including homes, schools, and religious sites. For instance, reports indicated damage to mosques in Pakistan and a gurudwara and a Catholic school in Indian-administered Kashmir. The escalating tensions and cross-border shelling also led to the displacement of numerous families residing near the Line of Control, forcing them to seek shelter elsewhere. The targeting of not only military but also civilian infrastructure, including schools and religious sites, represents a concerning development and could be interpreted as a deliberate attempt to inflict broader societal damage and further escalate tensions between the two nations.
The four-day military standoff also had a considerable economic impact on both India and Pakistan. Estimates suggest that the combined economic losses for both nations could have reached approximately $1 billion per hour during the active conflict. The military confrontation led to disruptions in stock markets, the closure of airspace, and an escalation in defense spending. Furthermore, the suspension of trade between the two countries is likely to have negative economic consequences, particularly for Pakistan, which is already grappling with high inflation and a weak economy. The significant economic costs incurred by both nations during this brief period of conflict underscore the broader destabilizing effects of such skirmishes and the potential long-term consequences for economic development and regional stability in South Asia.
The Future of Diplomatic Relations
The recent crisis has precipitated a significant breakdown in the already strained diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan. Following the Pahalgam attack, India took a series of assertive measures, including downgrading diplomatic ties, expelling Pakistani diplomats from New Delhi, recalling its own diplomatic staff from Islamabad, suspending all visa services, and closing the integrated check post at the Attari-Wagah border. A particularly escalatory step was India's decision to temporarily suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, a crucial agreement governing the sharing of river waters, which has survived previous conflicts. Pakistan responded with reciprocal measures, including suspending visas for Indian nationals, closing its airspace to Indian aircraft, expelling Indian diplomats, and suspending all trade with India, including through third countries. This comprehensive severing of diplomatic channels and the suspension of key agreements like the Indus Waters Treaty signify a severe deterioration in bilateral relations, making future engagement and de-escalation considerably more challenging.
Given the heightened tensions and the risk of further escalation, international actors, most notably the United States, stepped in to mediate. US President Donald Trump announced on May 10, 2025, that a ceasefire agreement had been reached between India and Pakistan following US-led talks. Other countries and the United Nations also urged both sides to exercise maximum restraint and de-escalate the situation. However, the ceasefire proved to be fragile, with both India and Pakistan accusing each other of violations within hours of the announcement. The necessity of US intervention to achieve even a temporary cessation of hostilities underscores the absence of effective bilateral mechanisms for de-escalation and the continued reliance on external actors to prevent larger conflicts between the two neighbors. The immediate accusations of ceasefire violations highlight the deep-seated mistrust and the precarious nature of any agreements reached.
Despite the deep freeze in diplomatic relations, there have been some indications of limited communication following the ceasefire. Reports emerged of telephone conversations between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of both armies to discuss the implementation of the truce. However, significant differences remain regarding the potential for future comprehensive dialogue. India has indicated that any future talks would primarily focus on the issues of terrorism and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. In contrast, Pakistan is likely to seek a broader agenda, including the resumption of discussions on the Indus Waters Treaty and the status of Indian-administered Kashmir. The extension of the ceasefire until May 18, 2025, as announced by Pakistan's Foreign Minister, suggests that some level of military-to-military communication is ongoing.38 However, the fundamental disagreements on the scope and priorities for future talks, coupled with the deep-rooted mistrust, remain substantial obstacles to a meaningful resumption of comprehensive diplomatic dialogue between the two nations.
The 2025 crisis is likely to have a lasting negative impact on the long-term prospects for diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan. The intensity of the military exchanges and the severity of the diplomatic fallout could further harden political rhetoric on both sides and narrow the already limited space for meaningful engagement. Experts suggest that this crisis might lead to a reassessment of deterrence postures and military capabilities by both countries. Furthermore, the crisis has brought renewed international attention to the Kashmir issue, a development that India has historically sought to avoid, preferring bilateral discussions. The focus on military responses and the breakdown of established communication channels create a less conducive environment for the peaceful resolution of outstanding issues, potentially entrenching a cycle of mistrust and escalation for the foreseeable future.
The Risk of Nuclear War
The India-Pakistan rivalry is particularly dangerous due to the fact that both nations possess nuclear arsenals. Understanding their respective nuclear doctrines is crucial to assessing the risk of escalation. India has a declared "No First Use" (NFU) policy, committing to not using nuclear weapons first and reserving their use for retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or forces. India's doctrine emphasizes "massive retaliation" in response to a first strike.5 However, some recent rhetoric from Indian political figures has introduced a degree of ambiguity regarding the strict adherence to the NFU policy. In contrast, Pakistan adheres to a "full-spectrum deterrence" posture, which includes the option of first use of nuclear weapons, particularly to counter India's significant conventional military advantage. This asymmetry in nuclear doctrines, with India's NFU and Pakistan's first-use option, creates inherent instability during times of crisis. Pakistan's doctrine, aimed at deterring conventional attacks, inherently lowers the threshold for potential nuclear use compared to India's stated policy.
The 2025 crisis witnessed a dangerous escalation in military actions, occurring under the shadow of nuclear deterrence. The conflict involved multi-domain warfare, including airstrikes deep into enemy territory, missile exchanges, drone warfare, and even reports of cyber operations, marking a significant intensification of hostilities between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. There were reports of Indian strikes on sensitive sites within Pakistan, which reportedly raised concerns in Islamabad about a potential decapitation strike targeting Pakistan's nuclear command and control infrastructure. Pakistan's invocation of Article 51 of the UN Charter, asserting its right to self-defense, further underscored the heightened sense of threat. Many experts assessed that the rapid escalation of the 2025 crisis brought South Asia perilously close to the brink of a full-fledged war, with the ever-present risk of nuclear implications. The intensity and nature of the military exchanges, particularly the deep strikes and the concerns about nuclear command and control, suggest that the 2025 crisis carried a significant risk of unintended escalation, potentially leading to a nuclear confrontation.
The role of international actors, particularly the United States, proved crucial in de-escalating the crisis and preventing a potentially catastrophic outcome. The US, driven by fears of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, actively engaged with the leadership of both countries to broker a ceasefire agreement. Other international actors, including China and the United Nations, also called for restraint and de-escalation. This swift international response, particularly the proactive engagement of the US, highlights the global recognition of the catastrophic potential of a conflict between two nuclear-armed states and the critical importance of external mediation in preventing escalation to the nuclear level.
Despite the fragile ceasefire currently in place, the underlying issues that fueled the crisis, most notably the Kashmir dispute, remain unresolved. This means that the risk of future crises between India and Pakistan, with the inherent danger of nuclear escalation, remains significant. The recent events underscore the urgent need for updated communication protocols between the two nuclear-armed states to prevent miscalculations and unintended escalation.3 Sustained diplomatic engagement, aimed at addressing the root causes of the conflict, is essential to building lasting peace and stability in the region. The increasing likelihood of future conflicts involving the use of drones and cyber operations adds further complexity to escalation control, requiring careful consideration of the potential for misinterpretation and unintended consequences. Without concrete steps towards addressing the fundamental issues and establishing more robust mechanisms for conflict resolution and de-escalation, the specter of nuclear conflict in South Asia will continue to loom large.
Conclusion: Key Findings and Strategic Implications
The recent Pakistan-India skirmishes represent a dangerous escalation in the long-standing rivalry between the two nuclear-armed nations. The crisis demonstrated India's enhanced capability to strike deep within Pakistan, while Pakistan proved its ability to retaliate and inflict damage. The conflict resulted in significant human and economic costs for both sides, further exacerbating their already fragile relationship. Diplomatic ties plummeted to a new low, marked by the suspension of critical agreements and the expulsion of diplomats. The fragile ceasefire brokered by the United States underscores the critical role of international intervention in preventing further escalation. Most alarmingly, the intensity of the military confrontation and the strategic signaling involved highlighted the ever-present risk of nuclear war in the region. The underlying causes of the conflict, particularly the unresolved Kashmir dispute, remain, indicating a continued potential for future crises. The strategic implications of this crisis are profound, underscoring the persistent instability in South Asia and the potential for regional conflicts to have global ramifications, especially given the nuclear arsenals of both India and Pakistan.
Recommendations
To de-escalate tensions and promote long-term peace between India and Pakistan, the following recommendations are proposed:
● Resumption of Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue: Initiate a sustained and comprehensive dialogue at the highest levels, addressing all outstanding issues, including the core dispute over Kashmir, as well as water sharing, terrorism, and trade. This dialogue should be structured and time-bound, with clear objectives and mechanisms for implementation.15
● Strengthening Communication Channels and Protocols: Enhance and formalize communication channels and protocols between military and diplomatic officials on both sides to ensure rapid and reliable communication during crises. This includes establishing hotlines at various levels and regular meetings to build trust and prevent miscalculation.3
● Enhancing Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures: Implement more robust transparency and confidence-building measures, particularly concerning military activities along the Line of Control and the International Border, as well as regarding their respective nuclear capabilities and doctrines. This could include advance notification of military exercises and regular information sharing.3
● Encouraging Continued International Engagement and Mediation: While bilateral dialogue is crucial, continued constructive engagement from the international community, particularly the United States and other influential nations, can play a vital role in facilitating dialogue, mediating disputes, and ensuring adherence to agreements. Identifying a neutral site for future talks, as suggested by some reports, could also be beneficial.15
● Focusing on People-to-People Exchanges and Promoting Understanding: Encourage and support initiatives that promote people-to-people exchanges, cultural understanding, and Track II diplomacy involving academics, civil society groups, and former diplomats. Building bridges at the grassroots level can help to gradually reduce mistrust and foster a more conducive environment for official dialogue.29
● Updating and Reinforcing the Indus Waters Treaty: Recognizing the impact of climate change and the increasing stress on water resources, both countries should engage in discussions to update and reinforce the Indus Waters Treaty to ensure equitable and sustainable water sharing in the long term. This could be done with the support of the World Bank, as was the case with the original treaty.29
Addressing the Root Causes of Conflict: While immediate de-escalation is paramount, sustained efforts must be directed towards addressing the underlying causes of the conflict, primarily the Kashmir issue. This will require a willingness from both sides to explore innovative and mutually acceptable solutions, potentially involving the participation of the Kashmiri people.
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